A 2008 Babe Ruth SP Legendary Cuts Auto Hair Cut Signature 1/1 on Jan. 8 failed to sell on eBay for $100,000 or best offer. The shipping was $5.95 (no comment). There were 9325 views and 20 declined offers. The seller has 100 percent feedback with 568 transactions:
Is it a good looking card? What is it worth?
What about this Legendary Cuts 5/8, free shipping, from a seller with 100 percent feedback/7230 transactions? The seller's suggested price is $8,500. It has sixteen offers and 11 days left.
Or this 10/10 cut auto, no hair bits, shipping $3.50, seller 99.8 percent feedback/13606 transactions. Suggested price: $8,500. No offers, as far as we can tell.
Let's look at a current Yankee. This 12/99 Jeter on-card auto is listed (shipping $3.00) by a seller with 100 percent feedback, 10450 transactions. As of 5:04 MT, the bid was $76.01:
This 42/99 Jeter auto sold on January 3 for $125, free shipping, seller 100 percent feedback/6940 transactions:
On Jan. 11, the Daisuke Matsuzaka on-card auto numbered 90/99 sold for $162.51; the shipping charge was $3.50 and the seller's feedback rating 100 percent with 2755 transactions:
On Jan. 7, this Daisuke card numbered 32/99 sold for $134.40; the shipping charge was $3.25 and the seller's feedback rating was 99.8 percent/1445 transactions:
On Jan. 5, this Daisuke card numbered 96/99 sold for $133.83; the shipping charge was $3.50, and the seller's feedback rating was 99.8/2680 transactions:
On Dec. 30, this Daisuke card numbered 25/99 sold for $189; the shipping charge was $4.00, and the seller's feedback rating 100 percent/17358 transactions:
So...what is the Legendary Cuts Daisuke auto card worth? What is the Legendary Cuts Jeter auto card worth? We're not even going to discuss the Babe cards.
If we were able to weigh the variables such as time, date, 0.2 percent difference in feedback rating, buyer sensitivity to shipping charges, the value of a low-numbered card versus high-numbered card out of 99, possible familiar buyers (the highest priced Daisuke went to the seller with the most sales), we might be able to come up with something like an average price for the Daisuke Legendary Cuts auto.
But we aren't able to crunch those variables, much as we would like to, due to current limitations. Whether those are computer processing limitations or brain limitations, we are not going to say. But roughly speaking, is $155 a good approximation as to the current value of the Daisuke Legendary Cuts on-card auto?
Are eBay selling prices a good predictor of value? Would a system evaluating completed transactions on eBay be a solid, reliable alternative to Beckett?
What would you pay for these cards?
6 comments:
My answers:
But roughly speaking, is $155 a good approximation as to the current value of the Daisuke Legendary Cuts on-card auto?
Yes.
Are eBay selling prices a good predictor of value?
They're not just a predictor, they tell us the value.
Would a system evaluating completed transactions on eBay be a solid, reliable alternative to Beckett?
It would be a billion times more valuable than Beckett, which just pulls its "values" out of their you-know-what :)
Great Post! I have actually planning and mentally constructing a post that talks all about card values, ebay and buying strategies.
Personally, I would say that the Dice-K card is worth the average of those four sales, and the Jeter card is equal to its average. If multiple cards have sold, my rule of thumb is that it is never worth its highest price.
Stay tuned over the next week or so as I attempt to evaluate card valuation from a free-market (eBay) perspective.
Seems like if three bidders, say, Larry, Moe and Curly are all interested in the same card- the price will be driven higher than the "same card" up for auction later after the winning bidders stop participating in future auctions. So yeah, seems like the average would be the best indicator of true value.
Just as with stocks, the value of a baseball card is what we think someone would pay for it right now. Ebay is a great indicator, especially for higher value cards, of which the cost of listing and shipping is a small percentage.
The question of what I would pay for these cards is trivial: I would pay some amount less than the demonstrated value on Ebay, and I would flip the card as soon as I bought it. Absent the knowledge of what other collectors would pay for this card, I'd pay no more than $10 for any of them. I'm not a Ruth collector or a Jeter collector or a Yankee collector or an Auto collector. I'm only barely a Dice-K collector. I'm mostly a DBacks collector. With $10, I can get on Ebay probably four or five jersey cards of DBacks. Why would I pay more for one card of a player/team I don't collect than for four or five cards that I will actually enjoy? Just because other people want those cards? Because they are artificially scarce? (Well, the Ruth cut sigs are to some extent actually scarce, but there will be more of them in the future)
You guys motivated me. The first of my Valuation posts is now up. grandcards.blogspot.com This series will be geared at people who buy cards for their own collection, and how they can best make their purchasing decisions.
In response to timrooks: Cards and Stocks are a little different, as stocks are tied to the profits and growth of a company. A better example would be commodities, which may or may not appreciate over time based on the scarcity of and demand for a particular item.
As for figuring the value? Yeap, the average ebay price of several of the same (or very similar) items is the way to go.
As for why the cards do or don't sell for the asking prices? Frankly, I think it speaks volumes for the state of the hobby. 10 years ago, a Babe Ruth hair/sig card would have sent a tizzy throughout the land. Now? It's just another 'personal effect' card. Sad, but true. You can game-used anywhere now, and as was pointed out above, there is no real 'rarity,' as we all know there will be more babe ruth hair cards to come. I think game-used as still very cool cards to have. But, I also know that a lot of folks se them as common as, well, commons... If money were no object, what would I pay for a babe ruth sig/hair card? $2500 maybe? Maybe...
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